One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences
Five polls show One Nation overtakes the Coalition, but Labor stays far ahead.
Five national polls released in the week ending 28 January show Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as the only party to overtake the Coalition for primary votes, with 25–26 % versus the Coalition’s 20–22 %. Labor remains the clear leader, polling 31–33 % primary votes. The YouGov (Jan 20–27), DemosAU (Jan 13–21), Morgan (Jan 19–25), Essential (Jan 20–23) and Freshwater (Jan 16–18) polls all report One Nation second to Labor and ahead of the Coalition. Preference flows favour Labour over the Coalition, but also channel a substantial share from the Coalition into One Nation, giving a 57–43 two‑party lead for Labour over One Nation. The 22 January Coalition split is reflected in the data, with rural seats seeing One Nation surpass the Coalition, signalling a possible shift in conservative‑leaning constituencies.
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