New START Treaty to End, Risk of Global Arms Race
The last US–Russia nuclear pact expires on Feb 4, 2026, threatening to erase decades of restraint.
The New START treaty, signed by Obama and Medvedev on April 8 2010 and effective 2011, capped Russian‑US deployed warheads at 1,550, missiles at 700 and launchers at 800—targets met by Feb 5 2018. The 87 % of global nuclear stockpiles lie in these two countries. With Trump’s 2020 refusal to extend and Biden’s 2021 two‑day extension, the deal has no renewal clause. Russia suspended key verification steps in 2023 and offered a one‑year extension in September 2025 that the US has ignored. Absent fresh negotiations, both arsenals could grow by 60 %–110 %, potentially doubling deployed warheads and raising mistrust worldwide.
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