Morgan poll has One Nation surging at Coalition’s expense; Trump’s net approval in negative double digits

A Morgan poll conducted 12–18 January 2026, sampling 1,630 voters, shows Labor at 53.5 % and the Coalition at 46.5 % by respondent preferences – a 1.5‑point Labor gain since the 5–11 January poll. One Nation jumps six points to 21 % from 15 %, the Coalition drops 6.5 % to 24 %, while Greens stay steady at 13.5 % and Others rise 2 % to 13 %. Primary votes otherwise: Labor 28.5 %, Coalition 24 %. In a Resolve poll, 66 % wanted tougher gun laws, 61 % backed a royal commission on extremism. Across Nevada-level politics, Trump’s net approval is –13.0 in Nate Silver’s aggregate, with 55 % disapproving and 42 % approving; his lowest reached –15.0 in November. Trump’s ratings on immigration, trade, economy and inflation are –9.5, –15.6, –15.9 and –25.2 respectively. The S&P 500 rose 7.8 % over six months, peaked Jan 12, but slid 2.1 % last session following tariff hints. The Bondi terror attack has intensified focus on gun reforms, with NSW Resolve showing 49‑19 backing for Premier Chris Minns’ response and 67‑16 supporting state gun laws.