How close is a peace deal in Ukraine - and have we been here before?

Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the United States convened in Abu Dhabi on 23 January 2026 for the first trilateral talks since Russia’s full‑scale invasion in 2022. The meeting brought Ukraine’s lead negotiator Rustem Umerov, chief‑of‑staff Kyrylo Budanov, and Russia’s Admiral Igor Kostyukov, while the U.S. represented by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The main sticking point remains territory: Russia demands Ukraine surrender the roughly 1,900 sq‑mi (20 %) of Donetsk still held by Kyiv forces. Ukraine insists on firm U.S. security guarantees and a definitive signing date. The talks follow brief U.S.–Russia and U.S.–Ukraine exchanges in Moscow, Oslo, and the World Economic Forum. Both sides stated progress has been made, but a final agreement requires resolving territorial claims and formalizing security commitments. The talks are seen as a critical moment yet observers warn that without decisive concessions, the conflict could continue.