Erdogan’s Political Fate May Rest on Turkey’s Kurds in May Elections

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has emerged as a kingmaker in the country’s May 14, 2023 presidential election, after announcing on March 23 it would not put forward its own candidate. The move allows its supporters to vote for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), potentially tipping the balance in a closely contested race. The HDP, which represents Turkey’s Kurdish minority—15% to 20% of the population—has been under a sweeping crackdown for alleged ties to the PKK, designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the EU. Its former leader Selahattin Demirtas has been in prison since 2016. The HDP’s influence grew after the 2015 election when it won 13% of seats, denying Erdogan’s AK Party its majority. Erdogan later called a snap election, which saw HDP support drop to 10.7%. With the HDP’s candidates now running under the Green Left Party due to a Constitutional Court case threatening the party’s closure, analysts say the HDP’s decision to stay neutral could help Kilicdaroglu avoid being labeled pro-PKK while still mobilizing Kurdish voters.