Democrats Find Footing Ahead of 2026 Midterms Amid Economic Headwinds

In November 2025, Democrats notched unexpected victories in off-year elections, with Mikie Sherrill defeating her Republican opponent by 14 points in New Jersey's gubernatorial race and Abigail Spanberger winning Virginia's governorship by 15 points—both stronger margins than Kamala Harris achieved in 2024. The wins, coupled with Democrat Eileen Higgins' historic victory in Miami's mayoral race—the first for a Democrat there in 28 years—signal a potential rebound for a party that had seen multi-year low approval ratings and declining voter registration through summer 2025. Polling from Marist shows Democrats now holding a double-digit lead heading into the 2026 midterms, the first such advantage in over three years. Experts attribute the shift to economic struggles under President Trump, including persistent inflation driven by his tariff policies, which the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates have increased prices by 0.7 percentage points. Small businesses paid $25,000 more per month in tariffs in 2025 compared to 2024, costs increasingly passed to consumers. As affordability concerns grow, Democrats are positioning tariff criticism as a central campaign theme.