5 years on from the junta’s coup, Myanmar’s flawed elections can’t unite a country at risk of breaking apart

On Feb 1 2021 the Myanmar military seized power, ending the elected National League for Democracy and imprisoning Aung San Suu Kyi. Over the next four years the economy collapsed; by 2025 inflation hovered above 30 %, real GDP fell 2.7 %, and the kyat is now roughly a quarter of its 2021 value. The junta staged a month‑long election in December 2025 that took place only in military‑controlled areas, disenfranchising an estimated 20 % of voters and leaving the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in full control. Russia supplied military technology while China secured oil‑and‑gas routes, and the Trump administration lifted Temporary Protected Status for Burmese migrants. Internationally, the ICJ hearings on the 2017 Rohingya atrocities stalled, and ASEAN members have begun to normalize ties with the junta, raising fears the country may fragment into autonomous ethnic states.